The past couple of years have been a time of competition for workers and rapid pay rises.

In the year to June 2022, the median weekly earnings from wages and salaries were up 8.8% across the country. In the year to June 2023, they were up 7.1%.

But there are signs that the labour market is softening, and some predict that unemployment could hit 5.5%, from its current rate of less than 4%.

So what might lie ahead for pay rises in 2024, and will some industries do better than others?

Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, said it was likely that everyone would get smaller pay rises in 2024 and 2025 than in recent years because inflation would slow, demand for additional labour would reduce and the supply of workers had improved a lot due to strong immigration.

The seasonally adjusted working age population expanded by 31,000 people between the June and September quarters.

Shannon Barlow, managing director of Frog Recruitment, said where there had been significant wage increases in the last 12 months was either where there had been a labour shortage – such as in manufacturing or construction, or where minimum wage increases had pushed up pay, such as in hospitality, cleaning and customer service.

The minimum wage increased from $15.75 in 2017 to $22.70 this year. Kiernan said that effect was likely to be less noticeable under National.

“You can bet that the minimum wage increase under the new government will be smaller than the ones implemented by Labour over the last six years.”

Barlow said there would still be challenges for businesses ahead, due to other cost pressures.

“There will still be a need to attract and retain staff but businesses won’t be in as strong a position to increase salaries – we are more likely to continue to see changes to benefits such as flexibility, wellbeing, professional development, insurances ...”

Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank, said there could be pay rises for jobs related to the housing market, which has been picking up steam again.

“We’ll hopefully see some gains, through negotiations, for doctors and healthcare professionals,” he said.

“We have an ageing population. So attracting and retaining healthcare workers will become increasingly difficult. I’d like to say the same for teachers. I believe we underinvest in our education, and it’s one of the key drivers of future prosperity and productivity.

“The legal profession will also notch up some gains. Lawyers do well, even in recessions. But we need more engineers. They’re actually useful.”

He said agricultural roles could remain under pressure. This was something that was highlighted by the Reserve Bank in November, when it said that a lower milk payout and increased costs would mean some dairy farmers made a loss in the current season.

Matt Cowgill, senior economist for recruitment site Seek, said its data showed that the industries most sensitive to rising unemployment were hospitality and tourism, advertising arts and media, design and architecture and retail.



“In the past, these are the industries that have seen the biggest falls in labour demand as the overall market slows. These are therefore the industries where we’d expect to see wages growth slow the most, as labour demand cools.”