Economic Shifts Challenge NZ Job Market in 2025

Shannon Barlow • November 18, 2024

Economic Shifts Challenge NZ Job Market in 2025

New Zealand's labour market is in a period of significant flux as we approach 2025, with various challenges and shifts impacting both employers and job seekers. The unemployment rate has seen a notable increase over the past year, though it remains below the peaks experienced during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and earlier periods of economic instability. Despite these concerns, the overall trends suggest there may be some stabilisation on the horizon.


The employment rate, sitting at 67.8%, has seen a slight decline from 68.4%, indicating a relatively steady number of people in work. Job advertisements have experienced fluctuations, with a surprising peak in July that provided a moment of hope for many in the recruitment sector. The participation rate has also remained stable, now at 71.2%, down only slightly from 2023 levels. These figures reflect the resilience of the labour market, though they also highlight areas where attention is needed to support further growth and sustainability.


However, it's important to acknowledge that certain sectors are feeling the strain more acutely than others. Industries such as retail and hospitality have faced particular challenges, with reduced consumer spending impacting job availability. Conversely, sectors like healthcare and technology continue to show resilience, providing a glimmer of hope for sustained employment growth. As we move into 2025, maintaining a balanced view of the labour market's strengths and weaknesses will be key to navigating these uncertain times.


“We're not facing the extreme highs we saw during COVID or prior to that. It's about recognising the trends and hoping for a levelling out as we move forward.”


In Frog Recruitment Thrive in 2025 Market Update, NZ's Managing Director, Shannon Barlow, offered in-depth insights into the current state of the labour market during a live stream discussion. Shannon began by addressing the rise in unemployment, stating, “While the increase in unemployment is concerning, it's important to keep a broad perspective. We're not facing the extreme highs we saw during COVID or prior to that. It's about recognising the trends and hoping for a levelling out as we move forward.” Her balanced perspective helped to paint a more nuanced picture of the current economic situation—yes, the rise is worrying, but it's not unexpected given the current climate.


Shannon also touched on the employment rate, noting that despite the drop to 67.8%, the figures remain fairly stable, and many people are still in work. This stability has provided some optimism for those navigating the job market. She pointed out that the July spike in job advertisements was a significant but temporary moment, which gave the market a boost before things began to ease off again. Her expectation is that while December and January are typically slow, “we can hopefully expect a gradual increase in activity as we move further into 2025”.


The NZ Market Update also explored regional trends, particularly in Auckland and Wellington. Shannon highlighted how these major urban centres are reflecting the national stats but are also seeing specific regional dynamics. For example, both cities have had to adapt to changes in job availability influenced by shifting economic conditions. The conversation underscored the importance of both employers and job seekers being flexible and resilient in response to these shifts. Employers are increasingly seeking candidates who can navigate uncertainty, while job seekers are focusing on skill development and adaptability as crucial tools for securing opportunities.


Shannon also emphasised the need for collaboration between businesses and the government to create initiatives that support employment growth. She mentioned that targeted support for industries struggling the most could help mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising unemployment. By fostering a supportive environment for both employers and workers, there is hope that the labour market can regain its momentum and build towards a more stable future.


Tips for Navigating the Labour Market in 2025

As we look ahead, adapting to the evolving labour market is key for both job seekers and employers. Here are some strategies to help make the most of the current conditions:


  1. Diversify Skills and Stay Relevant: With the labour market experiencing shifts, upskilling and reskilling are more important than ever. Workers should focus on building versatile skills that are in demand, particularly in industries like technology, healthcare, and sustainability. This will help make them more attractive to potential employers in a competitive environment.

  2. Leverage Temporary and Contract Roles: Temporary and contract work can be a strategic way to gain experience, network, and keep income flowing during uncertain times. Many employers are opting for more flexible work arrangements, which presents an opportunity for job seekers to enter new industries and prove their value.

  3. Be Open to Relocation or Remote Work: Flexibility in location can expand job opportunities, particularly as some industries grow more rapidly in certain regions or embrace remote working options. Considering roles outside your immediate area or exploring fully remote positions can increase your chances of landing a job.

  4. Focus on Sectors with High Demand: Industries such as technology, healthcare, and sustainability continue to show strong growth potential in New Zealand. Job seekers should align their skills and experience with the needs of these industries, as they are likely to provide the most stable opportunities moving forward.

  5. Adapt to the Changing Recruitment Landscape: Employers are looking for candidates who demonstrate adaptability, resilience, and a proactive approach. Emphasise these traits during your job search to better position yourself for opportunities. Personal branding and networking, particularly through platforms like LinkedIn, can also play a significant role in creating new connections and job leads.

Navigating the evolving labour market in 2025 will require a proactive and flexible approach, both from job seekers and employers. With the right strategies and an understanding of market dynamics, there is hope that we will see positive movement in the months to come, providing more stability and growth opportunities across the country.


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In business since 2002 in New Zealand, Frog Recruitment is an award-winning recruitment agency with people at our heart. Located across Auckland and Wellington, we specialise in accounting and finance, business support, education, executive, government, HR, legal, marketing and digital, property, sales, supply chain, and technology sectors. As the proud recipients of the 2024 RCSA Excellence in Candidate Care Award, we are dedicated to helping businesses achieve success through a people-first approach.

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Get in touch with Frog Recruitment


Auckland
   I  Wellington


In business since 2002 in New Zealand, Frog Recruitment is an award-winning recruitment agency with people at our heart. Located across Auckland and Wellington, we specialise in accounting and finance, business support, education, executive, government, HR, legal, marketing and digital, property, sales, supply chain, and technology sectors. As the proud recipients of the 2024 RCSA Excellence in Candidate Care Award, we are dedicated to helping businesses achieve success through a people-first approach.

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The UK's equality watchdog wants to stop employers asking job applicants about their previous salary or pay expectations. But would banning these questions create fairer pay outcomes, or could we be losing a valuable conversation? The problem isn't having a conversation about salary. It's using someone's previous salary to determine how little you can get away with paying them. That's the distinction at the heart of a debate emerging in the UK, where the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has recommended banning employers from asking job applicants about their salary history or expectations. The concern is understandable. If someone has been underpaid in a previous role, using that salary as the starting point for their next offer can mean existing inequalities follow them throughout their career. But from a recruitment perspective, there's another side to the conversation worth considering. Your previous salary shouldn't determine your future worth. Let's say two candidates apply for the same position. They have comparable experience, similar skills and the same ability to perform the role. One currently earns $80,000. The other earns $100,000. Should the employer offer the first candidate less simply because they've previously been paid less? Absolutely not. Remuneration should reflect the responsibilities of the role, the skills and experience required, internal equity and current market rates — not simply what someone managed to negotiate with their previous employer. Otherwise, people who have historically been underpaid can find themselves perpetually playing catch-up. This can be particularly problematic for people returning from career breaks, those who have prioritised flexibility over salary, and employees who have spent years with the same organisation while market rates have moved ahead. A change of employer should be an opportunity to reset remuneration against the market, rather than carry forward an outdated benchmark. But salary conversations can work in candidates' favour. While we understand the motivation behind the UK proposal, there's an important difference between asking about salary history to justify a lower offer and discussing remuneration to help someone understand their market value. As recruiters, we're constantly having conversations with employers and jobseekers about salary. Those discussions give us valuable insight into remuneration trends across different industries, professions and locations. They also allow us to challenge expectations on both sides. For employers, that might mean explaining that their proposed salary isn't competitive enough to attract the experience they're looking for. For candidates, it can mean helping them recognise that they've been underpaid and encouraging them to aim higher. Someone earning $75,000 might assume that asking for $85,000 is ambitious. But if comparable positions are paying $90,000 to $100,000, that conversation can be genuinely empowering. The objective shouldn't be to anchor someone's next salary to their previous one. It should be to help them understand what their skills are worth in today's market. Why are we so uncomfortable talking about money? New Zealanders and Australians can be surprisingly reserved when it comes to discussing salaries. We regularly encounter candidates who are uncomfortable disclosing what they currently earn or what they'd like to earn next. And that's understandable. Jobseekers want to achieve the best possible outcome, but they also worry about pricing themselves out of an opportunity. That concern can be particularly pronounced in a challenging employment market, when competition for roles is high and candidates may feel they have less negotiating power. Some people deliberately nominate a lower salary expectation because they're concerned an employer will otherwise overlook them. Others aren't confident about their market value, particularly if they haven't changed jobs for several years. This is where transparency and access to reliable salary information become particularly important. If candidates understand the market rate for their skills and experience, they're better equipped to have an informed conversation — rather than guessing what an employer might be willing to pay. What are New Zealand and Australia doing about pay transparency? Both countries have introduced changes designed to give employees greater freedom to discuss their remuneration. In New Zealand, the Employment Relations (Employee Remuneration Disclosure) Amendment Act came into force in August 2025. 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Publishing a realistic salary range helps jobseekers assess whether an opportunity aligns with their expectations and reduces the risk of wasting time on a process that was never going to work financially. It also places more responsibility on employers to determine what a role is worth before entering the market. Rather than asking candidates what they're currently earning and working backwards from there, employers should be asking: What are the responsibilities and expectations of this position? What skills and experience are essential? What are comparable positions paying in the current market? How does the proposed salary compare with what existing employees earn? These are the questions that should establish the remuneration range. There will still be room for negotiation based on individual experience and capability, but the starting point should be the value of the role — not the candidate's salary history. What should candidates do when asked about salary? For jobseekers, preparation is key. Before entering a recruitment process, research the market rate for comparable positions and consider the full remuneration package, including benefits, flexibility, development opportunities and progression. If you're uncomfortable disclosing your previous salary, it's reasonable to steer the conversation towards your expectations for the new role. For example: "I'd prefer to focus on the responsibilities of this position and the market rate for the experience I bring. Based on my research, I'm looking for something in the range of $X to $Y." And if you're working with a recruiter, use their market knowledge. A good recruiter should be able to explain whether your expectations are realistic, identify where your current remuneration may be below market and help you approach negotiations with greater confidence. Better transparency, not less conversation. The UK proposal raises an important issue, and the principle behind it is one we support: people shouldn't be disadvantaged in their next job simply because they were underpaid in their last one. But banning conversations about salary expectations could also remove an opportunity for candidates and recruiters to have constructive discussions about market value. The focus should be on making those conversations fairer and more transparent. Employers should establish salary ranges based on the role and the market. Recruiters should challenge unrealistic expectations and advocate for fair remuneration. And candidates should feel confident discussing what they're worth without worrying that doing so will cost them an opportunity. Ultimately, the question shouldn't be "What were you paid before?" but "What is this job worth, and what value will you bring to it?"  At Frog Recruitment and people2people, our consultants work with employers and jobseekers across New Zealand and Australia, providing market insights and remuneration advice to support informed hiring decisions. If you'd like to understand how your salary or hiring budget compares with the market, get in touch with our team.
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